Prevention and Treatment of Natural Disasters

Article

Assessing Drought Pattern Through Satellite Based Observation in the Koshi River Basin, Nepal

Downloads

https://doi.org/10.54963/ptnd.v3i2.293
Sigdel, M. (2024). Assessing Drought Pattern Through Satellite Based Observation in the Koshi River Basin, Nepal. Prevention and Treatment of Natural Disasters, 3(2), 199–215. https://doi.org/10.54963/ptnd.v3i2.293
Volume 3 Issue 2 (2024): In Progress
Copyright (c) 2025 Madan Sigdel
Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Copyright

The authors shall retain the copyright of their work but allow the Publisher to publish, copy, distribute, and convey the work.

License

Prevention and Treatment of Natural Disasters (PTND)  publishes accepted manuscripts under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0). Authors who submit their papers for publication by Prevention and Treatment of Natural Disasters (PTND) agree to have the CC BY 4.0 license applied to their work, and that anyone is allowed to reuse the article or part of it free of charge for any purpose, including commercial use. As long as the author and original source is properly cited, anyone may copy, redistribute, reuse and transform the content.

Authors

  • Madan Sigdel
    Central Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, Tribhuvan University, Kirtipur, Kathmandu 44618, Nepal

Drought identification is crucial for different environmental and ecological considerations. This study observed the spatial and temporal variation of drought based on satellite-derived vegetation condition index (VCI) on different time scales i.e. Winter, Pre-monsoon, and Annual compared with remotely sensed Land Surface Temperature (LST) and precipitation. MODIS NDVI product, LST, and meteorological station data for rainfall were used. VCI was used to classify drought. The Pearson correlation between VCI with LST and precipitation was conducted. The results show that severe drought was detected in 2001 in winter and pre-monsoon season and also in 2006 during pre-monsoon season. No severe drought was detected on the annual time scale but normal droughts were found in several years. The VCI trends have increased at the rate of 1.29 yr-1, 1.52 yr-1 and 1.72 yr-1 for annual, winter, and pre-monsoon respectively. Conversely, the LST decreased at the rate of 0.007 yr-1, 0.044 yr-1 and 0.028 yr-1 during annual, winter, and pre-monsoon. These increased VCI and decreased LST indicates decreases in drought trends on a yearly scale. The positively increased Anomaly of VCI (AVCI) indicates a better vegetation growth under moist soil condition. The VCI was also linked with precipitation showing positive correlation on annual and pre-monsoon time scales but a negative correlation with the winter season. The correlation between LST and VCI was negative in all time scales and more significant during pre-monsoon and winter season. This study helps to understand vegetation-based drought and its relation with temperature and precipitation in the Koshi basin in Nepal.

Keywords:

Vegetation Condition Index; Land Surface Temperature; Precipitation; Drought; Koshi River Basin

References

  1. Hayes, M. J.; Svoboda, M. D.; Wardlow, B. D.; Anderson, M. C.; Kogan, F. Drought monitoring: Historical and current perspectives. In Remote Sensing of Drought: Innovative Monitoring Approaches, 1st ed.; Wardlow, B.D., Anderson, M.C., Verdin, J.P., Eds.; CRC Press: Publisher Location, USA, 2012; Volume, pp. page range.
  2. Krueger, E. S.; Ochsner, T. E.; Quiring, S. M. Development and evaluation of soil moisture‐based indices for agricultural drought monitoring. Agron. J. 2019, 111, 1392–1406.
  3. Wu, H.; Xiong, D.; Liu, B.; Zhang, S.; Yuan, Y.; Fang, Y.; Chidi, C. L.; Dahal, N. M. 2019. Spatio-temporal analysis of drought variability using CWSI in the Koshi river basin (KRB). Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2019, 16, 3100. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph16173100
  4. Baniya, B.; Tang, Q.; Xu, X.; Haile, G. G.; Chhipi-Shrestha, G. 2019. Spatial and temporal variation of drought based on satellite derived vegetation condition index in Nepal from 1982–2015. Sensors 2019, 19, 430. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/s19020430
  5. Rouse, J. W.; Haas, R. H.; Schell, J. A.; Deering, D. W. Monitoring vegetation systems in the Great Plains with ERTS. In Proceedings of the 3rd Earth Resources Technology Satellite Symposium, Greenbelt, USA, 10-14 December 1973.
  6. Sandholt, I.; Rasmussen, K.; Andersen, J.. A simple interpretation of the surface temperature/vegetation index space for assessment of surface moisture status. Remote Sens. Environ. 2022, 79, 213–224.
  7. Deng, M.; Di, L.; Han, W.; Yagci, A. L.; Peng, C.; Heo, G. Web-service-based monitoring and analysis of global agricultural drought. Photogramm. Eng. Remote Sens. 2013, 79, 929–943.
  8. Liang, L.; Sun, Q.; Luo, X.; Wang, J.; Zhang, L.; Deng, M.; Di, L.; Liu, Z. Long-term spatial and temporal variations of vegetative drought based on vegetation condition index in China. Ecosphere 2017, 8, e01919.
  9. Dutta, D.; Kundu, A.; Patel, N. R.; Saha, S. K.; Siddiqui, A. R. Assessment of agricultural drought in Rajasthan (India) using remote sensing derived Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Egypt. J. Remote Sens. Space Sci. 2015, 18, 53–63.
  10. Vaani, N.; Porchelvan, P. Monitoring of agricultural drought using fortnightly variation of vegetation condition index (VCI) for the state of Tamil Nadu, India. Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci. 2018, 42, 159–164. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-4-W9-159-2018
  11. Sha, S.; Guo, N.; Li, Y. H.; Ren, Y. L.; Li, Y. P. Comparison of the vegetation condition index with meteorological drought indices: A case study in Henan province. J. Glaciol. Geocryol. 2013, 35, 990–998.
  12. Jain, S. K.; Keshri, R.; Goswami, A.; Sarkar, A. Application of meteorological and vegetation indices for evaluation of drought impact: a case study for Rajasthan, India. Nat. Hazards 2010, 54, 643–656.
  13. Yuan, F.; Bauer, M. E. Comparison of impervious surface area and normalized difference vegetation index as indicators of surface urban heat island effects in Landsat imagery. Remote Sens. Environ. 2007, 106, 375–386.
  14. Aryal, A.; Man Shakya, B.; Maharjan, M.; et al. Evaluation of the Land Surface Temperature using Satellite Images in Kathmandu Valley. Nepal J. Civ. Eng. 2021, 1, 1–10.
  15. Crausbay, S. D.; Ramirez, A. R.; Carter, S. L., et al. Defining ecological drought for the twenty-first century. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 2017, 98, 2543–2550.
  16. Zhang, J.; Liu, B.; Yang, L.; He, L.; Cao, X.; Shao, G. Ecological drought and its state assessment: a case study in the Yellow River estuary. J. Water Clim. Change 2022, 13, 13–25.
  17. Bagale, D.; Sigdel, M.; Aryal, D. Drought monitoring over Nepal for the last four decades and its connection with southern oscillation index. Water 2021, 13, 3411. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/w13233411
  18. Sigdel, M.; Ikeda, M. Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Drought in Nepal using Standardized Precipitation Index and its Relationship with Climate Indices. J. Hydrol. Meteorol. 2010, 7, 59–74. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3126/jhm.v7i1.5617
  19. Schott, F. A.; McCreary, J. P. 2001. The monsoon circulation of the Indian Ocean. Pro. Oceanogra. 2001, 51, 1–123
  20. Kafle, H. K. Spatial and Temporal Variation of Drought in Far and Mid Western Regions of Nepal: Time Series Analysis (1982-2012). Nepal J. Sci. Technol. 2015, 15, 65–76. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3126/njst.v15i2.12118
  21. Wang, S.-Y.; Yoon, J-H.; Gillies, R. R.; Cho, C. What caused the winter drought in western Nepal during recent years? J. Climate 2013, 26, 8241–8256.
  22. Mishra, A. K.; Singh, V. P. A review of drought concepts. J. Hydrol. 2010, 391, 202–216.
  23. Hu, X.; Ren, H.; Tansey, K.; Zheng, Y.; Ghent, D.; Liu, X.; Yan, L. Agricultural drought monitoring using European Space Agency Sentinel 3A land surface temperature and normalized difference vegetation index imageries. Agric. For. Meteorol. 2019, 279, 107707.
  24. Uddin K.; Shrestha H.L.; Murthy M.S.R.; Bajracharya B.; Shrestha B.; Gilani H.; Pradhan S.; Dangol B. Development of 2010 national land cover database for Nepal. J. Environ. Manage. 2014, 148, 82–90.
  25. Holben, B. N. Characteristics of maximum-value composite images from temporal AVHRR data. Int. J. Remote Sens. 1986, 7, 1417–1434.
  26. Pettorelli, N. The normalized difference vegetation index. Oxford University Press: publisher location, USA, 2013; pp. page range.
  27. Zhang, X.; Yan, G.; Li, Q.; Li, Z.; Wan, H.; Guo, Z. Evaluating the fraction of vegetation cover based on NDVI spatial scale correction model. Int. J. Remote Sen. 2006, 27, 5359–5372
  28. Kogan, F. N. Remote sensing of weather impacts on vegetation in non-homogeneous areas. Int. J. Remote Sens. 1990, 11, 1405–1419.
  29. Orimoloye, I. R.; Ololade, O. O.; Belle, J. A. Satellite-based application in drought disaster assessment using terra MOD13Q1 data across free state province, South Africa. J. Environ. Manage. 2021, 285, 112112.
  30. Liu, W. T.; Kogan, F. N. Monitoring regional drought using the vegetation condition index. Int. J. Remote Sens. 1996, 17, 2761–2782.
  31. Yan, Y.; Xiao, F.; Du, Y.; Ling, F.; Li, X.-D.; Li, Y-Z. Monitoring droughts in the five provinces along the middle-lower reaches of the yangtze river during spring/summer 2011 using avci. Resour. Environ. Yangtze Basin 2012, 21, 1154–1159. (in Chinese)
  32. Qian, X.; Liang, L.; Shen, Q.; Sun, Q.; et al. Drought trends based on the VCI and its correlation with climate factors in the agricultural areas of China from 1982 to 2010. Environ Monit Assess 2016, 188, 1–13.
  33. Zhang, G.; Xu, X.; Zhou, C.; et al. Responses of grassland vegetation to climatic variations on different temporal scales in Hulun Buir Grassland in the past 30 years. J. Geogr. Sci 2011., 21, 634–650.
  34. Paudel, B.; Gao, J.; Zhang, Y.; Wu, X.; Li, S.; Yan, J. Changes in cropland status and their driving factors in the Koshi River basin of the Central Himalayas, Nepal. Sustainability 2016, 8, 933.
  35. Amin, S., Bajracharya, A., Bongaarts, J., Chau, M., Melnikas A.J. 2017 "Demographic Changes of Nepal: Trends and Policy implication." Final Report. Kathmandu: Nepal Planning Commission, Government of Nepal. https://www.npc.gov.np/images/category/Demographic_Dividend_Report_May_2017_final_for_circulation1.pdf, (Accessed on 2nd December 2023)
  36. Karki, R.; Hasson, S.u.; Schickhoff, U.; Scholten, T.; Böhner, J. Rising precipitation extremes across Nepal. Climate 2017, 5, 4.
  37. DHM, 2017. Observed climate trend analysis in the districts and physiographic regions of Nepal (1971–2014). https://www.dhm.gov.np/uploads/dhm/climateService/Observed_Climate_Trend_Analysis_Report_2017.pdf, (accessed on 15th December 2023)
  38. Panthi, S.; Bräuning, A.; Zhou, Z. K.; Fan, Z. X. Tree rings reveal recent intensified spring drought in the central Himalaya, Nepal. Global Planet. Change 2017, 157, 26–34 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2017.08.012
  39. Dahal, N. M.; Xiong, D.; Neupane, N.; Yigez, B.; Zhang, B.; Yuan, Y.; Koirala, S.; Liu, L.; Fang, Y. Spatiotemporal analysis of drought variability based on the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index in the Koshi River Basin, Nepal. J. Arid Land 2021, 13, 433–454.
  40. Sigdyal, K. P. Save ecological balance: Environment problems and their solution in nepal, nepal nature’s paradise; insight in to diverse facets of topography, flora and ecology. J. Agric. Environ 1999, 9, page range
  41. Wang, X.; Wang, T.; Liu, D.; Guo, H.; Huang, H.; Zhao, Y. Moisture‐induced greening of the South Asia over the past three decades. Global Change Biol. 2017, 23, 4995–5005.
  42. Quiring, S. M.; Ganesh, S. Evaluating the utility of the Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) for monitoring meteorological drought in Texas. Agric. For. Meteorol. 2010, 150, 330–339.
  43. Wu, D.; Zhao, X.; Liang, S.; Zhou, T.; Huang, K.; Tang, B.; Zhao, W. 2015. Time‐lag effects of global vegetation responses to climate change. Global Change Biol. 2015, 21, 3520–3531.
  44. Olivares, B. O.; Paredes, F.; Rey, J.C.; et al. The relationship between the normalized difference vegetation index, rainfall, and potential evapotranspiration in a banana plantation of Venezuela. Sains Tanah - J. Soil Sci.d Agroclimatol. 2021, 18: 58–64. DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.20961/stjssa.v18i1.50379
  45. Olivares, B.O.; Rey, J.C.; Lobo, D.; Navas-Cortés, J.A.; Gómez, J.A.; Landa, B.B. Fusarium Wilt of Bananas: A Review of Agro-Environmental Factors in the Venezuelan Production System Affecting Its Development. Agronomy 2021, 11, 986.
  46. Rodríguez-Yzquierdo, G.; Olivares, B.O.; González-Ulloa, A.; et al. Soil Predisposing Factors to Fusarium oxysporum f.sp Cubense Tropical Race 4 on Banana Crops of La Guajira, Colombia. Agronomy 2023, 13, 2588. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy13102588
  47. Barrera, C.S.; Olivares B. O. Evolution and trend of surface temperature and windspeed (1994-2014) at the Parque Nacional Doñana, Spain. Rev. Fac. Agron. (LUZ) 2020, 37, 1–25. (in Spanish)
  48. Olivares, B. O.; Hernandez, R. Á. Regional analysis of homogeneous precipitation areas in Carabobo, Venezuela. Rev. Lasallista Investig. 2019, 16, 90–105. DOI: https://doi. org/10.22507/rli. v16n2a9. (in Spanish)