New Energy Exploitation and Application

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Strategic Roadmap for Hydrogen Mobility in Türkiye: Implementation Phases, Export Potential, and Regional Hub Development

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https://doi.org/10.54963/neea.v5i2.2350
Aydin, K. (2026). Strategic Roadmap for Hydrogen Mobility in Türkiye: Implementation Phases, Export Potential, and Regional Hub Development. New Energy Exploitation and Application, 5(2), 51–73. https://doi.org/10.54963/neea.v5i2.2350
Volume 5 Issue 2: June 2026
Copyright (c) 2026 Kadir Aydin
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Authors

  • Kadir Aydin

    Department of Mechanical Engineering, Ostim Technical University, Ankara 06374, Türkiye

Received: 26 January 2026; Revised: 17 May 2026; Accepted: 19 May 2026; Published: 28 May 2026

This study develops and quantitatively evaluates a three-phase strategic roadmap for hydrogen mobility deployment in Türkiye between 2025 and 2050, integrating Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats (SWOT) and Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Legal, and Environmental (PESTLE) analyses with multi-criteria corridor assessment, discounted-cash-flow Levelized Cost of Hydrogen (LCOH) modelling, input–output Gross Domestic Products (GDP) multiplier estimation, and Monte-Carlo sensitivity analysis. Primary inputs are drawn from the 2023 Türkiye National Hydrogen Technologies Strategy, Automotive Manufacturers Association, Otomotiv Sanayii Derneği (OSD) automotive statistics, and peer-reviewed techno-economic studies (2021–2025). The pilot phase (2025–2030) targets 10–25 refuelling stations and 500–2,000 fuel-cell electric vehicles (FCEVs); the scale-up phase (2030–2040) reaches 100–250 stations, 50,000–150,000 vehicles, and 0.5–1.5 MMT/yr of hydrogen export; the maturity phase (2040–2050) targets 500–1,000 stations, an FCEV stock of 500,000–1,000,000 units (about 1.6–3.1% of Türkiye’s projected ~32 million 2050 fleet, i.e., a segment-targeted rather than fleet-wide strategy), green-hydrogen production of 1,000–2,500 kt H₂/yr (≈2,700–6,800 t/day), and 2–4 MMT/yr of export capacity. Monte-Carlo analysis (10,000 trials) yields a mean green LCOH of €2.35/kg by 2035 with a 90% confidence interval of €1.85–2.95/kg, driven primarily by electrolyzer Capital Expenditure (CAPEX) and renewable electricity price. Investment of €5.0–8.0 billion through 2035 is estimated to generate €14–22 billion direct GDP contribution and 48,000–96,000 full-time-equivalent jobs, using a 2.8 × International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) multiplier. Trans Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline (TANAP) repurposing offers the lowest delivered cost (€2.70–3.60/kg) to EU off-takers and retains a clear total-cost-of-ownership advantage over battery-electric trucks above 500 km daily range. The 2025–2030 window is decisive for Türkiye’s positioning as a regional hydrogen hub.

Keywords:

Hydrogen Mobility Roadmap Fuel‑Cell Electric Vehicle Levelized Cost of Hydrogen Monte-Carlo Sensitivity Analysis Hydrogen Export Corridor Türkiye

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