Urbanization, Carbon Lock-in, and the Green Economy Transition: Policy Frameworks for Inclusive Low-Carbon Development

Abstract:

Rapid urbanization has emerged as a double-edged driver of global carbon emissions, exacerbating carbon lock-in through energy-intensive infrastructure and consumption patterns while offering opportunities for green economy transitions. This paper examines the interplay between urbanization, carbon lock-in mechanisms, and policy levers for inclusive low-carbon development across developing and developed contexts. It argues that breaking carbon lock-in requires integrated policies spanning renewable energy deployment, circular urban planning, and just transition frameworks. Drawing on case studies from Brazil, China, and Kenya, the analysis identifies synergies between climate policy, sustainable infrastructure investment, and social equity. The findings highlight the need for context-specific policy mixes that align urban growth with carbon neutrality goals while safeguarding vulnerable communities.